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  • SAAC Milan3-0Lecce, our favourite won
  • LLAtlético2-1Real Madrid, our favourite lost
  • L1Auxerre2-1Brest, our favourite won
  • EDAZ1-0Telstar, our favourite won
  • PLBournemouth0-1Liverpool, our favourite lost
  • LLDeportivo1-1Real Betis, a draw
  • PTEstoril1-2Casa Pia, our favourite lost
  • PTEstrela0-2Académico Viseu, our favourite lost
  • EDFeyenoord5-0Utrecht, our favourite won
  • SAFiorentina1-1Napoli, a draw
  • SAFrosinone2-0Como, our favourite lost
  • PLFulham1-1Man United, a draw
  • LLGetafe1-0Málaga, our favourite won
  • SAJuventus2-0Atalanta, our favourite won
  • PLLeeds0-0Palace, a draw
  • BLLeverkusen2-0RB Leipzig, our favourite won

Today's model reads

Today's Football Predictions

Live probabilities from our statistical model. Pick a match for the full analysis.

Fri, 9 Oct 2026

Kick-off times are UK time. 6 matches shown.

Match analysis: Augsburg v Bayern Munich

Featured analysis

Bundesliga

Augsburg

14:30

Sat, 10 Oct

UK time

Bayern Munich

  • Model: FC Real Stats goals model
  • Data quality: High
  • Updated 1 min ago
View Full Match Analysis

69%

Bayern win

17%

Draw

14%

Augsburg win

What does 69% mean?

A 69% probability means the model expects Bayern to win about 69 times in 100 matches like this one. It is not a guarantee.

Why Bayern is at 69%

  • Attacking strengthStrong
  • Augsburg defenceSolid
  • Home advantageAgainst
  • Recent formBayern +6
  • Draw tendencyLow
  • Data qualityHigh

How it works

How a number gets made

No tipsters and no hunches. Every number on this page takes the same route, from last weekend's results to the figure on your screen, and every one of them is marked after full time.

  1. 01 / 05

    Every result goes in

    It starts with what actually happened: 5,081 league results from the last three seasons across 7 leagues, refreshed every six hours. A forecast only ever learns from matches played before its kick-off.

    Full timeResults feed
    1. AC Milan 3, Lecce 0
    2. Atlético Madrid 2, Real Madrid 1
    3. Auxerre 2, Brest 1
    4. AZ 1, Telstar 0
    5. Bournemouth 0, Liverpool 1
    6. Deportivo 1, Real Betis 1
    7. Estoril 1, Casa Pia 2
    8. Estrela 0, Académico Viseu 2
    9. Feyenoord 5, Utrecht 0

  2. 02 / 05

    Each side gets a rating

    From those results every team earns an attacking rating and a defensive one. Recent games count for more, home advantage is measured rather than assumed, and scoring against a tight defence counts for more than scoring against a leaky one. This is the Bundesliga as the model sees it today.

    Bundesliga team ratings. Attack above 1 scores more than average, defence below 1 concedes less.
    TeamAttackDefence
    Bayern Munich1.950.68
    Borussia Dortmund1.230.61
    Leverkusen1.230.81
    RB Leipzig1.180.85
    Stuttgart1.230.89
    Freiburg1.070.90
    Hoffenheim1.141.01
    Mainz 050.960.91
    Elversberg1.081.04
    Augsburg1.000.99
    Frankfurt1.111.13
    Köln0.911.11
    Werder Bremen0.811.00
    Schalke 040.660.82
    Gladbach0.851.09
    Paderborn0.690.92
    Union Berlin0.831.15
    Hamburger SV0.741.05
    Bundesliga, every side as the model rates it today.

  3. 03 / 05

    Ratings become scorelines

    Put two ratings side by side and you get the goals each side should expect: 1.30 for Augsburg and 2.83 for Bayern. From those two numbers the model works out the chance of every scoreline, with a small correction for the low-scoring draws football throws up more often than pure chance would.

    04 / 05

    One grid, every market

    Home win, draw, away win, over 2.5 goals, both teams to score. Each one is read off the same grid, so the numbers can never contradict each other. Pick a market to see which scorelines count towards it.

    Augsburg v Bayern

    Expected goals 1.30 v 2.83

    Chance of each exact score in Augsburg v Bayern Munich, in percent. Rows are Augsburg goals, columns Bayern Munich goals.
    Augsburg goalsBayern Munich 0Bayern Munich 1Bayern Munich 2Bayern Munich 3Bayern Munich 4Bayern Munich 5
    02.14.16.46.14.32.4
    11.66.48.47.95.63.2
    21.43.85.45.13.62.1
    30.61.72.42.21.60.9
    40.20.50.80.70.50.3
    50.00.10.20.20.10.1
    Each bar is the chance of that exact score. Teal bars are Augsburg wins, grey draws, blue Bayern wins. Six goals a side or more are left off the chart but counted in every number.

  4. 05 / 05

    Then we mark our own work

    Every forecast is scored once the final whistle goes. Across 2,737 matches since Aug 2025, the model scores 0.196 on the Brier scale against 0.217 for simply backing the usual home, draw and away split. When it says 60 to 69%, that outcome has happened 66% of the time.

    Marked after full timeSince Aug 2025
    matches forecast before kick-off, then marked
    2,737
    Brier score, lower is better. The usual split scores 0.217
    0.196
    of our 60 to 69% calls came true
    66%
    • Predicted probability
    • Observed frequency
    Calibration: predicted probability against how often it happened
    Forecast bandAverage forecastHappenedForecasts
    40 to 49%45%44%956
    50 to 59%55%56%687
    60 to 69%64%66%349
    70 to 79%75%83%170
    80 to 89%84%81%59
    Blue is what the model said on average, teal is how often it happened. Matching bars mean the percentages can be taken at face value.

In numbers

The game, in real numbers

The 2025/26 season in 7 leagues and all 104 matches of the 2026 World Cup. Every chart is drawn from the same public results the model learns from.
Matches
380
Goals
1,045
Goals a game
2.75
Home wins
43%
Draws
27%
Champions
Arsenal

Goals per game

2.75 goals a game. The line is what a Poisson model with that average expects.

  • Matches with that many goals
  • Poisson curve with the same average
Matches by total goals against the Poisson expectation
Goals in the matchMatchesPoisson expectation
02724.3
15366.8
29191.9
310184.2
45957.9
53331.8
6914.6
7+78.5

Home, draw, away

Home sides won 43% of their matches.

Home wins
16243%
Draws
10427%
Away wins
11430%

57% of goals came after half-time, 593 of 1,045.

First half
452
Second half
593

Title race

Arsenal finished top on 85 points.

Most common scores

1-1 was the most common result, 47 times.

Matches by final score. Rows are home goals, columns away goals.
Home goalsAway 0Away 1Away 2Away 3Away 4Away 5 or more
02731151021
1224727941
22937261010
3272011320
4263211
5 or more111000

Results from openfootball league data (opens in a new tab) and its World Cup archive (opens in a new tab), free and in the public domain.

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Full time

Your next ninety minutesstart here.

37 matches with fresh probabilities this week. Make a free account to save the ones you care about and see how each forecast moves before kick-off.

Create a free accountSee the matches

  1. Moreirense v Gil Vicente

    Fri, 9 Oct · 18:45

    Moreirense 29%draw 30%Gil Vicente 41%

  2. PSV v Heerenveen

    Fri, 9 Oct · 19:00

    PSV 67%draw 17%Heerenveen 16%

  3. Dortmund v Bremen

    Fri, 9 Oct · 19:30

    Borussia Dortmund 73%draw 18%Werder Bremen 9%

Augsburg v Bayern, the featured match

Augsburg 14%, draw 17%, Bayern Munich 69%.